OTHER GENERAL DISCUSSION ON EXISTENTIAL RISK AND HUMAN EXTINCTION
Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction. Jason Gaverick Matheny. Risk Analysis, Vol. 27, No. 5 (2007): 1335-1344
— review article, including case for cost effectiveness of xrisk mitigation
Book:
John Leslie: The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction (New York: Routledge, 1996)
— focuses mainly on the doomsday arguments (see "observation selection theory" below), but also discusses some ethical and empirical issues
GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS
Introduction to Global Catastrophic Risks. Nick Bostrom & Milan Cirkovic. In Global Catastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008): pp. 1-30
— GCRs is a superset of existential risks that also includes far less serious risks that would nevertheless have globally significant impacts. This is a book chapter, giving a broad overview of global catastrophic risks generally
Global Catastrophic Risks Survey. Anders Sandberg & Nick Bostrom. Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University, Tech. Report (2008)/1
— result of an informal expert poll - the median probability to human extinction by 2100 was 19%
Literature on GCR
— reading list on global catastrophic risks from circa 2008
Some books on global catastrophic risks:
Nick Bostrom & Milan Cirkovic: Global Catastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008)
Richard Posner: Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004)
Jared Diamond: Collapse: Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Viking Adult, 2004)
Tad Homer-Dixon: The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (Island Press, 2008)
Vaclav Smil: Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2008)
POPULAR
Book:
Martin Rees: Our Final Century (London, William Heineman, 2003)
— discusses extinction risks among other things, but note that Rees's oft-cited claim that there is a "fifty-fifty" chance that this is our last century refers to the likelihood that our "present civilization" will survive (yet its failure to do so does not necessarily imply human extinction or an existential catastrophe).
Dinosaurs, Dodos, Humans? Nick Bostrom. Global Agenda, January (2006): 230-231
— one popular summary
A Primer on the Doomsday Argument. Nick Bostrom. ehpilosopher, 12 May 2007
— a popular short introduction to one argument that claims the probability of existential risk has been systematically and radically underestimated
FERMI PARADOX (GREAT FILTER)
Where Are They? Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing. Nick Bostrom. MIT Technology Review, May/June issue (2008): 72-77
— the "Fermi paradox" is the lack of observation of any extraterrestrial life; this paper explores connection to existential risk
VALUE THEORY
Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development. Nick Bostrom. Utilitas, Vol. 15, No. 3 (2003): 308-314
— argues that xrisk reduction should be a dominating concern for many consequentialists
On Becoming Extinct. James Lenman. Pacific Philosophical Quarterly, Vol. 83 (2002): 253-296 [link: may require journal subscription]
— argues that it doesn't matter when humanity goes extinct, provided it doesn't happen very soon
Fat-Tail Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. Martin L. Weitzman. Preprint (Harvard, 2011)
— claims most expected harm from climate change is in the tail (of low-probability, high-consequence outcomes)
The Most Important Thing About Climate Change. John Broome. in Public Policy: Why Ethics Matters, ed. Jonathan Boston, Andrew Bradstock, & David Eng, ANU E Press (2010): 101-116
— critiques Weitzman's paper
OBSERVATION SELECTION THEORY AND OTHER METHODOLOGY
Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks. Milan Cirkovic, Anders Sandberg, & Nick Bostrom. Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 10 (2010): 1495-1506
— illustrates how observation selection effects can bias inferences about some xrisk probabilities
How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe? Max Tegmark & Nick Bostrom. Nature, Vol. 438 (2005): 754
— earlier, more compact discussion of the above
Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy. Nick Bostrom. (New York: Routledge, 2002)
— book on anthropic reasoning, including the doomsday argument and other xrisk-relevant applications
Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes. Toby Ord, Rafaela Hillerbrand, & Anders Sandberg. Journal of Risk Research, Vol. 13, No. 2 (2010): 191-205
— when an analysis says a risk is extremely small, most net risk can lie in the possibility that the analysis is wrong
Book:
John Leslie: The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction. (New York: Routledge, 1996)
— Leslie's book emphasizes the controversial but potentially important Carter-Leslie doomsday argument, though his book also discusses some empirical issues relevant to assessing the risk of human extinction
|
